Immortal Fruits

About Immortal Fruits

If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.

The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.

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In 2021, Judge Gloria Navarro sentenced Rashid to 33 months at the Federal Correctional Institution in Sheridan, Ore., followed by three years of supervised release after he pleaded guilty to one count of using an interstate facility in aid of unlawful activity—specifically, a prostitution service.

According to the FBI, which raided his Las Vegas house on human trafficking warrants in 2014, Rashid “persuaded, induced, enticed and caused hundreds of victims to prostitute themselves for his benefit” beginning in 2002.

“Rashid operated a high-end prostitution business that transported victims across the United States, using various paid websites … to advertise the victims for prostitution purposes,” read a press release from the US attorney’s office, District of Nevada.

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Prediction markets have proven effective at attracting sharp bettors and high-rollers who are often limited or banned by traditional sportsbooks. However, consumer surveys indicate that when given the choice between a sportsbook and a yes/no exchange, most recreational bettors still prefer the traditional sportsbook interface. That dynamic helps explain why prediction markets remain in second place.

“Prediction markets represent a meaningful second channel for NFL wagering but still small on a relative scale, reflecting a new sector with less of an installed base,” observes EKG.

It’s widely believed that all-or-nothing exchanges are carving out significant niches in states, such as California and Texas, where sports betting is prohibited, but there’s also emerging consensus that the prediction market threat to sportsbooks is easing.